Maize Grain Monthly Update (South Africa) 2026-01

South Africa’s agricultural market, valued at approximately USD 0.94 billion in 2026, is projected to grow at a 6.6% CAGR to USD 1.29 billion by 2031, supported by government subsidies, mechanisation programs, and strong export demand. Despite recent contractions in 2023 and 2024 due to climate extremes and livestock diseases, the sector rebounded in early 2025 with a 27% increase in tractor and machinery sales and a 28% recovery in summer maize crops. Agritec Africa 2026, held in Johannesburg from March 11-13, will showcase over 100 exhibitors and focus on precision agriculture, sustainable irrigation, mechanisation, and agro-processing to enhance farmer income and sector resilience. The event aligns with South Africa’s National Development Plan priorities and aims to foster collaboration among policymakers, investors, and agribusinesses to support sustainable growth and innovation in the agri-food industry.

AgriSA acknowledges the South African 2026 National Budget's focus on fiscal consolidation and infrastructure reform but criticizes its lack of targeted strategic investments to enhance agricultural competitiveness and biosecurity. Despite agriculture's vital role in export growth, rural employment, and food security, the budget falls short in providing clear, allocated funding to address immediate biosecurity threats such as foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks and to modernize disease surveillance and vaccine distribution systems. The sector also faces challenges in regulatory certainty, logistical efficiency, and input competitiveness, which are crucial for sustaining agricultural expansion. AgriSA emphasizes that without strengthened biosecurity systems, coordinated trade and infrastructure efforts, and accelerated implementation capacity, fiscal stability alone will not ensure sustained growth in agriculture.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved a $200 million loan to support the second phase of Nigeria’s National Agricultural Growth Scheme – Agro-Pocket (NAGS-AP), targeting increased agricultural productivity, strengthened value chains, and promotion of climate-smart farming. Building on the initial phase’s success, which tripled wheat output to 0.5 million metric tons in 2024 and benefited 650,000 smallholder farmers, the new phase will enhance access to quality seeds, fertilizers, digital tools, and extension services. Scheduled to run for four years from March 2026, the program aims to address challenges such as low input access, land tenure issues, and climate variability, thereby boosting local production and reducing food imports. This initiative aligns with AfDB’s strategic vision to empower youth and women in agriculture, fostering inclusive growth and resilience in Nigeria’s agri-food sector.

Aalwurms cause approximately 12.3% crop losses globally, translating to about US$157 billion annually, posing a major threat to maize production. These nematodes are often underestimated due to their small size and symptoms that mimic nutrient deficiencies or drought stress, such as slow growth, yellowing, wilting, and root galls. Identification requires laboratory analysis of field samples taken during early vegetative growth when damage signs first appear. Control methods include chemical fumigation, soil composting, crop rotation with resistant cover crops like vetch and white mustard, and careful irrigation practices to avoid spreading aalwurms from deep water sources. Maintaining soil health through fertilization, weed control, and crop rotation is crucial to managing aalwurm infestations effectively.

Namibia, Botswana, and Mozambique have recently imposed unjustified restrictions on South African agricultural exports, particularly vegetables, undermining the Southern African Customs Union's (SACU) principle of free movement of goods. These trade barriers conflict with commitments under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to remove trade obstacles by 2030 and risk destabilizing regional agricultural value chains. Despite these challenges, South Africa's agricultural sector showed resilience in 2025, with farm employment rising 3% year-on-year to 950,000 jobs, driven by strong performance in field crops and horticulture. South Africa's agricultural exports to Africa accounted for 42% of its total US$15.1 billion exports in 2025, with 17% going to SACU countries, emphasizing the region's importance. The report calls for urgent high-level dialogue to resolve trade restrictions and suggests reassessing SACU's structure to better support South Africa's export diversification and regional trade interests amid evolving global trade dynamics.

Togo’s Ministry of Agriculture, supported by the Private Sector Competitiveness Support Program, has initiated a comprehensive update of databases for five major crop value chains: pineapple, mango, corn, soybean, and cassava. This initiative aims to enhance food security, agro-industry development, and job creation by improving stakeholder identification, interprofessional coordination, and market positioning for farmers. The updated data will support the adoption of agroecological and climate-smart practices to increase productivity and profitability. Scheduled through April 2026, the project involves validating membership criteria, training technicians, and registering stakeholders to strengthen the organization and sustainability of these value chains.

A new BCG-PxD report highlights that Digital Agriculture Units (DAUs) embedded within governments are critical to scaling digital agriculture solutions beyond pilot stages in low- and middle-income countries. Despite ambitious digital agriculture strategies, adoption among smallholder farmers remains below 15% due to underfunding and lack of delivery capacity. DAUs perform essential functions including investment planning, stakeholder coordination, delivery support, and accountability, enabling digital tools like AI-driven advisory services to increase yields cost-effectively. The report emphasizes that well-designed DAUs with clear mandates and sustainable resources can transform digital agriculture pilots into scalable national platforms, driving inclusive and sustainable growth in agri-food systems.

The African Development Bank Group has approved a $200 million loan to support the second phase of Nigeria’s National Agricultural Growth Scheme – Agro-Pocket (NAGS-AP), aimed at increasing food production, strengthening agricultural value chains, and reducing food imports. The initiative focuses on distributing climate-resilient seeds, tailored fertilizers, and enhancing extension services through digital platforms to improve smallholder farmer productivity. Phase One of NAGS-AP successfully tripled national wheat output to approximately 500,000 metric tons during the 2023/2024 dry season, benefiting around 650,000 farmers cultivating key crops. Agriculture remains a critical sector in Nigeria, employing 38% of the workforce and contributing 25.2% to GDP, but faces challenges such as weak irrigation and limited mechanization. The four-year project starting in March 2026 aligns with AfDB’s strategy to leverage technology and climate resilience for inclusive agricultural growth and national food security.

The African Development Bank Group has approved a $200 million loan to scale up Nigeria’s National Agricultural Growth Scheme – Agro-Pocket (NAGS-AP) Phase 2, focusing on improving productivity, strengthening value chains, and promoting climate-smart, data-driven farming. The funding will support five key programs including access to high-quality inputs, digital agriculture, and crop insurance, aiming to increase wheat production fivefold and rice output by 20 percent to enhance national food self-sufficiency. Building on Phase 1 successes, which tripled wheat output to 0.5 million metric tons and benefited 650,000 smallholder farmers, the project targets youth engagement and commercial farming expansion over four years starting March 2026. Agriculture remains vital to Nigeria’s economy, employing 38 percent of the workforce and contributing 25.2 percent to GDP, but faces challenges such as low productivity and climate impacts that this initiative seeks to address.

South Africa's agriculture sector is currently grappling with a severe foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, prompting urgent efforts to secure and distribute 28 million vaccine doses over the next 12 months to protect the national herd of 14 million cattle. While animal health remains the immediate focus, there is a growing call to strengthen biosecurity measures for plant health, particularly given climate variability and the rapid spread potential of crop diseases. The government and Agricultural Research Council are urged to proactively engage with global crop protection technology developers to ensure South African farmers have access to the latest agrochemicals and genomic innovations, vital for maintaining food security and export competitiveness. Infrastructure improvements in ports, roads, and water management highlighted in the recent State of the Nation Address are critical to supporting agricultural exports, which currently constitute about half of production. Additionally, expanding market access, especially in Asia, the Middle East, and BRICS countries, alongside deploying 10,000 new extension officers, are key strategies to boost productivity and sustain the sector’s growth.