Maize Grain Monthly Update (India) 2026-01

Indigenous protesters have occupied a Cargill export terminal in the Port of Santarém, Pará state, Brazil, amid the soybean harvest, disrupting shipments from a crucial export hub that handles over 40% of Brazil’s corn and soybean exports. The protests are linked to opposition against a public bidding process for dredging the Tapajós River and a presidential decree enabling privatization of river management in the Amazon. Previous actions included blocking road access to the terminal and shutting down Santarém airport, further impacting logistics. Industry groups have condemned the protests for threatening jobs, property rights, and the stability necessary for investment and development in the agri-food sector. Cargill has called for dialogue to ensure the safe resumption of operations and continued food transport.

The finalized US-Taiwan trade agreement reduces tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15%, aligning Taiwan with competitors like South Korea and Japan, while committing Taiwan to increase purchases of US goods, including $44.4 billion in LNG and crude oil and $15.2 billion in civil aircraft from 2025 to 2029. The deal eliminates tariffs of up to 26% on many US agricultural imports such as beef, dairy, and corn, though some tariffs on pork products will only reduce to 10%. Taiwan also agreed to remove non-tariff barriers on motor vehicles and accept US safety standards for autos, medical devices, and pharmaceuticals. This agreement aims to strengthen supply chains in high-tech sectors including AI and semiconductors, with Taiwan pledging significant investments in US production. The US trade deficit with Taiwan surged to $126.9 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, driven by increased imports of high-end AI chips.

The US and Taiwan finalized a trade agreement that reduces Taiwan's tariffs on US agricultural products, including beef, dairy, and corn, from up to 26% to zero, while some tariffs on pork products will decrease to 10%. The deal commits Taiwan to significantly increase purchases of US goods, including $44.4 billion in liquefied natural gas and crude oil from 2025 to 2029. It also facilitates investments in high-technology sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and advanced electronics. Additionally, Taiwan will remove non-tariff barriers on US motor vehicles and accept US safety standards for medical devices and pharmaceuticals. This agreement aims to enhance US export opportunities for farmers and manufacturers and strengthen supply chain resilience amid rising US trade deficits with Taiwan driven by increased imports of high-end AI chips.

Indian corn and soybean prices declined following a new trade agreement allowing duty-free imports of U.S. soyoil and distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), a corn-based cattle feed. Since the deal's announcement, soybean and corn prices have dropped by 10% and 4% respectively, raising concerns among Indian farmers about cheaper imports amid a record high domestic corn production of 28.3 million metric tons for the 2020-21 season. Domestic demand from ethanol producers and feed manufacturers remains weak, exacerbating the supply glut. Farmers and unions, who were not consulted before the agreement, have called for nationwide protests starting February 12, warning that the deal threatens the farm sector's stability.

Chicago soybean futures declined by 0.49% to $11.09-3/4 a bushel on February 9, pressured by increased competition from South America following a four-day rally sparked by U.S.-China trade optimism. Despite President Trump's remarks about China potentially boosting U.S. soybean purchases to 20 million tons for the 2025/26 season, market skepticism remains due to elevated prices. In Brazil, 16.55% of the 2025/26 soybean crop has been harvested, surpassing last year's pace, with exports from January to February projected at 14 million metric tons. Wheat and corn prices also edged lower amid ample global supplies and ahead of the USDA's world crop report, while Ukrainian wheat and corn export forecasts were downgraded due to slow shipments.

Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan emphasized that the India-US trade deal safeguards India's agriculture sector by excluding key agricultural products vital to farmers from the agreement. No tariff concessions have been granted on sensitive items such as meat, poultry, dairy, soybean, maize, rice, wheat, sugar, spices, and various fruits and vegetables, ensuring the protection of Indian farmers' livelihoods. The pact also prohibits the entry of genetically modified products to preserve the purity of Indian agriculture. Chouhan dismissed opposition claims that the deal harms farmers, highlighting that the agreement was reached through constructive dialogue and prioritizes national and farmers' interests.

India and the United States have reached a framework for an interim trade agreement that will reduce reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18%, enhancing export opportunities in key sectors including textiles, leather, and machinery. Import duties on products such as generic pharmaceuticals, gems, diamonds, and aircraft parts will be eliminated, supporting India's export competitiveness. Crucially for the agri-food industry, the agreement fully protects sensitive agricultural and dairy products like maize, wheat, rice, soya, poultry, milk, cheese, ethanol, tobacco, certain vegetables, and meat, safeguarding farmers' interests and rural livelihoods. The pact is expected to open a $30 trillion market for Indian exporters, particularly benefiting MSMEs, farmers, and fishermen, with the final agreement anticipated by mid-March.

India's interim trade framework with the US has been designed to fully safeguard the interests of Indian farmers and small producers, with key sensitive agricultural products exempted from tariff concessions. Union Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized that no genetically modified goods, meat, poultry, dairy, soybean, maize, rice, sugarcane, millets, or certain fruits and pulses are included in the deal, ensuring protection for domestic agriculture. The agreement also excludes oilseeds, groundnuts, honey, malt products, and other items critical to farmers. Despite opposition claims that the deal favors US agricultural exports and threatens Indian farmers, the government maintains that the pact will not harm the agri-food sector. The deal includes a significant reduction in US tariffs on Indian goods and commits India to purchasing $500 billion in American energy, technology, and aircraft over five years, while reducing tariffs on select US agricultural products such as tree nuts and soybean oil.

India and the US have reached an interim trade agreement that outlines tariff reductions on key agricultural and food products, including red maize, cotton, almonds, fruits, soybean oil, wine, and spirits. The US has lowered its tariff on Indian products from 25% to 18%, while India will reduce tariffs on US agricultural imports and alcohol, though it will maintain tariffs on certain fruits like oranges and bananas. The deal aims to increase bilateral trade to $50 billion within five years and provides zero-duty access for Indian exports such as aircraft equipment, pharmaceuticals, and auto parts. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal emphasized that the agreement protects farmers and small enterprises while opening new opportunities in sectors like textiles, leather, and processed foods. This development marks a significant step in enhancing agricultural trade relations between the two countries.

India and the United States have agreed on an interim trade framework that includes tariff reductions on a broad range of agricultural and food products, such as dried distillers’ grains, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruits, soybean oil, wine, and spirits. India’s agricultural imports from the US increased in FY25, with significant growth in lentils, almonds, and walnuts, supported by relaxed re-export conditions for walnuts to improve supply chain flexibility. The deal protects sensitive Indian agricultural sectors including maize, wheat, rice, soya, poultry, milk, and dairy products, ensuring farmers' interests are safeguarded. Both countries also committed to addressing non-tariff barriers and improving regulatory predictability to facilitate smoother trade flows in agri-food products. This framework sets the stage for a comprehensive Bilateral Trade Agreement aimed at deepening economic cooperation and sustainable growth in agri-food trade.