Maize Grain Monthly Update (Russia) 2026-01

Uzbekistan's Deputy Minister of Agriculture Akmal Kasymov met with a Chinese delegation from the China-Uzbekistan Investment Development Center to discuss enhancing sustainable cooperation in agriculture. The talks focused on expanding investments, technology transfer, and implementing innovative projects, particularly in the Jizzakh region's pasture and fallow land development using modern agro-technologies. Proposals included introducing high-yield corn varieties, deploying drones for agro-services, and advancing digitalization and smart farming practices. Both parties agreed to intensify information exchange, adopt best practices, and accelerate investment processes to support long-term, innovation-driven agricultural collaboration.

In 2025, Russia's grain harvest reached 141.15 million tons, up from 125.9 million tons in 2024, with wheat production increasing to 91.1 million tons from 82.6 million tons. Notable gains were seen in barley, corn, and leguminous crops, while rye and buckwheat harvests declined slightly. Oilseed crops rose to 34.4 million tons, driven by higher sunflower, soy, and rapeseed outputs. Yields improved overall, with grain and legume yields increasing to 34.4 centners per hectare from 27.9 in 2024, and sugar beet yields also rising. Potato production grew by 9.3% to 19.5 million tons, and vegetable output edged up to 14.1 million tons, supported mainly by household farms. These figures exclude data from four newly incorporated regions.

Global grain production is set to reach a historic high of over 3 billion tonnes in the 2025-2026 marketing year, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). This milestone is driven by record harvests in China, which produced 715 million tonnes, as well as increased wheat outputs in Russia, the EU, and Argentina. Corn production is also rising notably in China, the USA, and Argentina, while rice continues to break records with Indonesia contributing to growth. The FAO projects wheat production at 834.71 million tonnes (+4.54%), corn at 1.311 billion tonnes (+7.42%), rice at 561.64 million tonnes (+1.96%), and soybeans at 430.26 million tonnes (+0.11%) for the 2025-2026 period.

Global grain production is set to reach a historic record of over 3 billion tons in the 2025-2026 marketing year, according to the FAO. This milestone is largely attributed to a record grain harvest in China, totaling 715 million tons. Wheat production is projected at 834.71 million tons, up 4.54%, supported by increased outputs in Russia, the EU, and Argentina. Corn production is expected to rise by 7.42% to 1.311 billion tons, with growth in China, the USA, and Argentina. Rice and soybean harvests are also forecast to increase, reaching 561.64 million tons (+1.96%) and 430.26 million tons (+0.11%), respectively. These figures were presented at the Winter Grain Conference, which focuses on strategic development and market information exchange within the Russian grain industry.

In the 2025/2026 grain season, Russia produced 138.76 million tons of grain, including 90.9 million tons of wheat and a record 7.96 million tons of legumes, while rye production hit a historic low. Despite a good harvest in the Southern Federal District, overall grain sowing areas fell by over 5%, signaling a crisis in the sector. Domestic grain consumption remained stagnant at around 85 million tons, with declines in poultry and pork populations and a 27% drop in wholesale pork prices impacting feed grain demand. Export volumes lagged 13% behind last season due to quota restrictions and strong global overproduction, leading to large carryover stocks that threaten a market depression for grain commodities.

Kazakhstan achieved a strong 2025 grain, legume, and oilseed harvest totaling nearly 31 million tons, with wheat production reaching 19.3 million tons, the second highest in its history. The country is diversifying crop production by reducing wheat sowing to 12.1 million hectares in 2026 while expanding oilseeds, legumes, and corn, supported by Chinese investment in corn processing facilities aiming to triple processing capacity by 2030. Wheat exports remain robust, with over 4 million tons shipped recently, primarily to Uzbekistan, while imports of Russian wheat continue at around 650 thousand tons for the 2025/26 marketing year. Flour production is growing, with more than half exported mainly to Central Asian countries, and feed flour exports to China are significant but face potential trade restrictions due to pricing competition affecting Chinese farmers. Recent fiscal policy changes, including an 80% VAT withholding on exporters, have negatively impacted export prices and volumes, causing market uncertainty and potential losses for Kazakh farmers.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts a historic global grain production exceeding 3 billion tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, driven by record harvests in China and strong outputs from Russia, the EU, Argentina, the US, and Indonesia. Wheat production is expected to reach 834.71 million tons, up 4.54%, while corn is projected at 1.31 billion tons, a 7.42% increase. Rice production will also grow by 1.96% to 561.64 million tons, and soybean output is forecast to rise slightly by 0.11% to 430.26 million tons. This growth reflects expanding grain volumes across major producing countries, signaling robust supply trends in the global agri-food sector.

Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture aims to increase dry corn production to 18 million tons by 2026 to strengthen the raw material base for the compound feed industry and reduce reliance on imports. The forecast by Badan Pusat Statistik indicates that corn production in January–March 2026 could reach 4.94 million tons, a 4.18% increase from the same period in 2025. With transitional stocks estimated at 4.5 million tons, the government expects to fully meet domestic demand, supporting growth in poultry and livestock farming. The expansion of corn production and adoption of modern processing technologies are expected to diversify product use, enhance farmer value, and reinforce national food security.

Global grain markets exhibit moderately positive price trends, supported by U.S. weather risks, importer activity, and anticipated tender purchases, though volatility remains high due to crop condition and export news. In the oilseed sector, biofuel policy expectations in the U.S. are driving increased interest in soybeans and soybean oil, with FOB prices rising for soybeans in Brazil (+1.0%) and canola in Canada (+2.2%), while sunflower prices declined slightly in France (-0.8%). Corn prices show mixed movements, increasing in Argentina (+0.7%) but decreasing in the U.S. (-0.8%). Domestically, price dynamics vary regionally with soybean prices falling by 1% in central areas, canola down 2.6% in central regions but rising in the south, and sunflower prices steadily increasing by 0.5% across all regions, reflecting stable processing demand.

On February 26, 2026, U.S. wheat futures showed mixed results with soft red winter wheat prices rising on the Chicago Board of Trade, while hard red winter wheat prices fell in Kansas City. Corn futures increased across March, May, and July contracts, supported by substantial export sales to Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. Soybean futures declined slightly despite strong export sales to Egypt, Germany, and China, amid ongoing uncertainties in trade negotiations and biofuel policy developments. European markets mirrored U.S. trends with rising wheat and corn futures on the Paris-based Euronext exchange. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported robust weekly export sales for wheat, corn, and soybeans for the week ending February 19, 2026, highlighting sustained global demand.