Maize Grain Monthly Update (United States) 2026-01

Recent farmland auctions across the Midwest show robust per-acre sale prices reflecting high crop productivity and favorable soil conditions. In Marshall County, Illinois, a 128-acre farm sold for $12,100 per acre, featuring a crop productivity index of 129.4 and strong yields in corn, soybeans, wheat, and oats. Lyon County, Iowa, saw a 280-acre farm sell for $21,338 per acre, with significant corn base acres and high Price Loss Coverage yields of 184 bushels per acre. In Nebraska's York County, a 200-acre farm with 173 irrigated acres sold for $11,500 per acre, boasting class I and II Hastings silt loam soils and high PLC yields for corn and soybeans. Meanwhile, a 320-acre farm in Wichita County, Kansas, including cropland and grassland, sold for $1,550 per acre, with wheat, corn, and grain sorghum base acres reflecting moderate yields. These sales underscore ongoing strong demand for productive farmland in key agricultural regions.

U.S. corn and soybean markets posted significant gains recently, supported by strong demand and continued Chinese purchases. Weather challenges in South America, including heavy rains causing harvest and planting difficulties and soybean quality issues, have further supported market prices. Wheat prices also rebounded due to weather concerns, particularly in Kansas City, contributing to a positive trend for U.S. grains in February. Meanwhile, cattle markets faced pressure amid concerns over feedlot closures in Texas and potential labor disruptions, despite historically low cattle supplies and strong beef demand. As planting begins in Texas, market focus is shifting toward spring production prospects and ongoing weather developments in South America.

The projected prices for crop insurance revenue policies for the 2026-27 season show a slight decline for corn at $4.62 per bushel and spring wheat at $6.19, down 8 cents and 36 cents respectively from last year, while soybean prices rose significantly to $11.09, up 55 cents. These prices, based on February futures contracts, will influence farmers' revenue guarantees and insurance coverage decisions, with policies available until March 15. USDA forecasts indicate 94 million acres of corn and 85 million acres of soybeans will be planted, with corn maintaining a slight profitability edge despite negative returns projected for both crops. Legislative changes under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act are expected to reduce premiums by about $400 million, enhancing the attractiveness of supplemental coverage options. Analysts advise farmers to remain vigilant for seasonal price movements and consider marketing strategies such as put options to improve price floors amid ongoing market volatility.

Corn futures have remained near recent lows with price compression indicating a market in transition rather than a clear trend. Despite subdued price action, U.S. corn export inspections recently hit record highs, reflecting strong and steady demand that is about 30% ahead of last year. Globally, the corn stocks-to-use ratio is at its lowest in a decade, tightening supply margins and increasing sensitivity to weather and logistical factors. In Brazil, the Safrinha corn planting and first harvest progress are slower than last year but not alarming, suggesting manageable supply timing risks. The USDA projects a reduction of roughly 3.5 million corn acres in the U.S. next season, shifting some acreage to soybeans, which could tighten supply further. Overall, the corn market is quietly recalibrating with steady demand and modest supply adjustments, emphasizing the need for producers to maintain disciplined, flexible strategies rather than reacting to volatility.

Wheat futures rose significantly as drought conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma worsened, with drought coverage in Kansas nearly doubling to 8.35% and Oklahoma increasing to 91% as of mid-February. Technical buying also supported price gains, with May wheat futures reaching $5.84 per bushel. Meanwhile, U.S. corn and soybean export sales for the week ending February 19 plunged by 53% and 49% respectively, compared to the previous week, with several large order cancellations impacting totals. Despite the sales decline, corn exports increased by 21%, while soybean exports fell 37%. Dry and windy weather forecasts for key Corn Belt states, including Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri, raise concerns about crop conditions and wildfire risks.

The National Corn Growers Association released a comprehensive report titled "America’s Crop at Risk" ahead of the Commodity Classic, emphasizing corn's historic significance in American agriculture over the past 250 years. The report underscores the urgent need for action to secure the future of corn production and family farms. It reveals that only 43% of family farms have a family successor lined up, while over 60% depend on off-farm employment to maintain operational stability, highlighting challenges in farm succession and economic sustainability.

Sky-high beef and lamb prices have sparked increased interest in diversifying from traditional corn and soybean production to pasture-based livestock farming. Producers are considering shifting row-crop acres to pasture mixes to support both sheep and cattle grazing, aiming for profitable ventures in meat production. Organic corn prices have risen significantly, influencing a move towards more corn and fewer soybean acres, with organic egg production driving domestic corn demand. Grass-finished beef, including dairy-beef crosses, is gaining attention for its quality, though it requires a longer finishing period compared to lamb. Overall, the current market conditions highlight the benefits of integrating livestock grazing with crop production to enhance domestic protein supply and farm profitability.

The weekly U.S. export sales report provides a comprehensive summary of export activities for a wide range of key agri-food commodities including barley, beef, cattle hides and skins, corn, cotton and its by-products, flaxseed, grain sorghum, oats, pork, rice, rye, soybeans and related products, sunflower seed oil, and various classes of wheat. The report tracks sales data across these commodities, offering insights into market demand and trade flows as of February 2026. This information is essential for stakeholders monitoring export trends and supply chain dynamics in the agri-food sector.

The USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum presented forecasts for key U.S. crops, with corn acreage expected to decline to 94 million acres, still the third highest on record. Soybean plantings are projected to recover to 85 million acres, driven by typical crop rotations and higher profitability. Winter wheat acreage is forecasted to decrease slightly, leading to a modest reduction in total wheat acreage including spring and Durham varieties. Cotton production is projected to fall by 300,000 bales, while exports are expected to rise by 200,000 bales, resulting in lower ending stocks and a slight increase in farm prices to 63 cents per pound in 2026 due to global production declines and steady demand.

The National FFA Organization celebrates over 1 million members across 9,407 chapters nationwide, including all 50 states, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands during FFA Week. Concurrently, the Commodity Classic opens its 30th anniversary event in San Antonio, uniting corn, soybean, wheat, and sorghum producers who previously held separate national conventions. This milestone event highlights the consolidation of these commodity groups into one major annual gathering, reflecting the evolving collaboration within the agri-food sector.