Maize Grain Monthly Update (Brazil) 2026-01

Brazil is adopting a cautious stance amid escalating US and Israeli attacks on Iran, balancing its tariff negotiations with the US and its alliance with Iran as a new BRICS member. The Brazil-Iran trade relationship is significant, with a 2025 trade flow of US$3 billion, primarily driven by exports of unmilled corn and soybeans. Experts highlight the risk that intensified conflict and potential US naval blockades could disrupt Brazilian exports to Iran, impacting key agricultural sectors. Brazil’s government calls for restraint and negotiation, reflecting its traditional diplomatic approach and the complexities of maintaining relations with both the US and BRICS countries like China and Russia. The ongoing tariff negotiations with the US, following previous import taxes on Brazilian products, add another layer of economic sensitivity to Brazil’s position in this geopolitical context.

Brazil solidifies its position as a global leader in biofuels, largely due to its robust agribusiness sector focused on soybean and corn production, key inputs for biodiesel and ethanol. Mato Grosso stands out by combining large-scale production, innovation, and expanding industrial capacity, particularly through the installation of new corn ethanol plants that enhance value addition and regional economic development. This local industrialization reduces logistical costs, creates jobs, increases tax revenues, and supports sustainable development. Brazil’s ability to produce biofuels at scale with low environmental impact reinforces its role in the global energy transition, demonstrating how agricultural strength, technology, and sustainability can drive economic growth and environmental preservation.

Brazil's second-season corn crop, forecasted at 109.3 million tons by Conab, faces significant risks from adverse weather conditions and nutritional imbalances. High temperatures, water deficits, and abrupt climate variations during critical development stages like tasseling and grain filling threaten to reduce grain formation and final weight, impacting productivity and farmer profitability. Nutritional stress, often unnoticed, further limits crop development by reducing grain number and weight due to insufficient macro and micronutrients essential for plant metabolism. Experts recommend proactive management strategies including selecting drought-tolerant hybrids, aligning planting with agricultural zoning, and employing integrated technologies such as seed treatments and foliar nutrition products to enhance crop vigor and mitigate environmental stress.

Brazil's soybean harvest has reached 48%, led by Mato Grosso at 70%, with overall production expected near 175 million tons, slightly below earlier estimates but above last cycle's 171.5 million tons. Despite China's absence from global soybean purchases during the Lunar New Year, Chicago soybean futures hit multi-month highs, with the July contract nearing US$11.80 and a market target of US$12 driven by firm fundamentals. Increased demand for animal feed and oil due to harsh Northern Hemisphere winter and potential U.S. biofuel stimulus are supporting prices for soybean oil and corn ethanol. Corn planting in Brazil is progressing, with the first crop 42% harvested and the second crop 62% planted, though some delays persist. Wheat prices are rising amid winter uncertainties, while rice prices remain below cost in Rio Grande do Sul despite export growth. Coffee prices are also climbing due to lower supply.

The Brazilian corn market maintained firm prices throughout February due to restricted domestic supply and a slower pace of cereal commercialization, as focus remained on the soybean harvest, transport, and sale. Price behavior was regionalized, with strong increases in São Paulo's interior driven by tighter supply and replenishment demand, while port prices remained stable amid a 2% drop in the commercial dollar and steady Chicago Board of Trade values. In the Midwest, delays in the soybean harvest and excessive soil moisture have postponed the planting of the second corn crop (safrinha), raising climate concerns and impacting productive potential. Market agents are closely monitoring rainfall and field progress, as the soybean harvest's advancement is expected to free up resources for safrinha planting. Overall, corn prices showed positive variation in most markets up to February 26, with expectations to remain firm short-term due to limited supply and steady domestic demand, though increased liquidity may arise as soybean harvesting and safrinha planting progress.

Brazil's second-crop corn production, expected to reach 110.46 million tons according to Conab, faces significant risks from fall armyworm infestations, particularly at the crop's early stages. The pest's discreet initial damage, including leaf scraping and irregular holes, often leads to late detection and increased economic losses. Effective management strategies emphasize early monitoring, integrated pest management (IPM), and product rotation to prevent resistance. UPL Brasil's Propose, containing Clofenapir and Chlorantraniliprole, is a registered insecticide recommended for controlling Spodoptera frugiperda through both contact and ingestion modes.

BioMilho Brazil 2026, organized by Pró-Usinas JornalCana and held on February 26, 2026, in Ribeirão Preto (SP), highlighted key advancements in the corn agri-food sector. The event featured presentations and discussions on sustainable corn production techniques, biofuel applications, and processing technologies aimed at improving yield and efficiency. Industry experts and stakeholders gathered to exchange insights on market trends and innovations driving the Brazilian corn industry forward.

Corn futures on Brazil's B3 exchange gained on Thursday, recovering recent losses due to heightened concerns over excessive rains in the Midwest, which threaten the optimal planting window for the safrinha crop. March 2026 contracts closed at R$71.45, up R$0.91 daily, while May and July contracts also saw increases. In the South, trading remained limited as producers focused on fieldwork and ports adjusted offers to replenish stocks. Meanwhile, Chicago corn futures edged higher, influenced by soybean market developments related to biofuel blending mandates and potential reallocation of unused volumes by smaller refineries. However, gains were capped by a weak weekly export report and delays in approving an E-15 ethanol sales project.

In 2025, Paraná solidified its leadership in the export of high genetic value purebred swine, accounting for 62.1% of Brazil's export revenue in this sector, totaling US$1,087 million, with Paraguay as the main market. The state's swine success is attributed to high sanitary standards and investment in genetic technology. Paraná also showed strong performance in agricultural production, with soybean harvest reaching 37% of the 5.77 million hectares planted and maintaining a forecast of 22.12 million tons for the 2025/26 crop. Corn production is expected to total 21.1 million tons across two crops, with significant area recovery and planting progress supporting the animal protein supply chain. Meanwhile, broiler producers benefited from a 2.9% reduction in production costs and a positive margin, reinforcing Paraná's position as Brazil's leading chicken meat exporter. The bean sector saw a reduction in second crop area due to producer caution, while the tomato market experienced typical seasonal price fluctuations between crop cycles.

Recent rains in central and northern Argentina have improved water conditions for key summer crops, notably increasing the area classified as Optimal or Adequate for soybeans by 10 percentage points. Currently, 72% of the first soybean crop is in the critical yield definition phase, while 12% of the second crop has entered this stage, relying on continued rainfall due to prior thermo-hydric stress. Corn harvest is progressing in Santa Fe and the North Nucleus with average yields of 87 and 70 bags per hectare respectively, while late corn crops are benefiting from the rains with 86.6% rated between Normal and Excellent. The sunflower harvest has paused awaiting moisture, but progress is 7.2 points above the historical average, with yields steady at 22.8 bags per hectare and production projected at 6.2 million tons. Overall, the production forecast for soybeans remains stable at 48.5 million tons amid these improving conditions.