Broken Rice Monthly Update 2026-01

Vietnam’s rice export prices experienced a slight decline in late February 2026 due to a surge in domestic supply from the winter–spring harvest in the Mekong Delta and a slowdown in import demand from key markets. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice importer, is expected to reduce its rice imports to around 150,000 tons per month in March and April 2026, down from an average of 400,000 tons monthly. Despite this short-term dip, economic experts view the Philippines’ import reduction as temporary and do not foresee a long-term impact on its status as a major buyer. In January 2026, Vietnam exported approximately 600,000 tons of rice, marking a 12.4 percent increase in volume and a 16.9 percent rise in value year-on-year, with the average export price reaching US$616.6 per ton.

On February 27, Vietnam's domestic rice market remained calm with limited supply and cautious trading, leading to slight price fluctuations and differentiation among varieties in the Mekong Delta. While some rice types like CL 555 saw price declines, others such as Dai Thom 8 experienced minor increases, and retail prices remained generally stable. By-products like rice bran continued to decline in price. In contrast, export rice prices showed an upward trend, with Vietnam's Jasmine rice rising by 2 USD/ton to 433–437 USD/ton, maintaining competitiveness against major exporters like Thailand, India, and Pakistan. The global rice market experienced an 11.1% price increase by mid-February 2026, driven by renewed demand following India's export restriction lift, stockpiling in Africa and the Middle East, and seasonal demand ahead of Ramadan and Tet. These developments suggest a new adjustment phase in the rice market, benefiting exporters but increasing cost pressures on food processors and raising food inflation risks.

Rice export prices from major Asian hubs remained largely unchanged in late February 2026 due to subdued demand and abundant supply. Indian 5% broken parboiled and white rice prices held steady at around USD 350-356 and USD 347-352 per metric ton, respectively. Vietnam’s 5% broken rice was offered at USD 360-365 per ton, with trading activity resuming but facing challenges as the Philippines plans to reduce monthly imports from 400,000 to 150,000 tons starting March. Thailand’s 5% broken rice prices stayed around USD 383-385 per ton, with buyers shifting preference to competitively priced Vietnamese rice. Market participants anticipate potentially lower yields this year due to forecasted dry conditions, while overall supply remains stable as the new crop outcome is awaited.

The Thai government and China have agreed on a government-to-government (G to G) deal to trade 40,000 tons of rice, with deliveries starting from February 2026, focusing on 5% broken white rice. Thailand aims to meet China’s target of 500,000 tons of rice purchases in 2026 through ongoing negotiations and market expansion efforts. In 2025, Thailand exported nearly 7.9 million tons of rice, exceeding its target, and expects around 7 million tons in 2026. The Ministry of Commerce plans to promote Thai rice, especially high-quality and health-oriented varieties, in key markets such as Germany, the US, China, and the Middle East, while supporting SMEs. Stable exchange rates and competitive pricing are seen as crucial to achieving export goals and stabilizing the domestic rice market during harvest periods.

Thailand's rice exports dropped significantly in January 2026, with volumes falling 17.5% year-on-year to 530,000 tonnes and export value declining 30.7% to 9.7 billion THB (approximately 312 million USD). The Thai Rice Exporters Association forecasts total rice exports for 2026 to decrease by 11% to 7.03 million tonnes, with export value expected to fall 12.3% to 130 billion THB. Key challenges include the strengthening baht, which has made Thai rice more expensive compared to competitors, and a temporary 15% US import tariff that could reduce fragrant rice exports to the US by 15–20%. Additional pressures stem from global oversupply, record production in India, import restrictions by countries like Indonesia, and food security policies promoting self-sufficiency. Exporters call for urgent government action to address currency issues, develop new rice varieties, and reduce production costs to maintain Thailand's market share.

Punjab is confronting a critical foodgrain storage shortage as its covered godowns, with a capacity of 182 lakh tonnes, are nearly full, currently holding 144 lakh tonnes of rice and 48 lakh tonnes of wheat. The state expects an additional 75 lakh tonnes of rice from last year’s paddy procurement, exacerbating the storage crunch. Efforts to evacuate old stocks have stalled due to limited grain movement from Punjab and other surplus-producing states, leading to a storage logjam similar to that in 2019. The government has asked millers to store rice at their premises and plans to divert 10% broken rice for ethanol production in future seasons, but these measures offer limited immediate relief.

Thai rice exports fell 17.5% year-on-year to 530,287 tonnes in January 2026, with export value dropping 30.7% to 9.71 billion baht, driven by declines in key varieties like white rice and Thai hom mali. Export volumes to Iraq and the US decreased significantly, while shipments to Malaysia and China surged due to supply shifts. The Thai Rice Exporters Association highlighted the overvalued baht and US tariffs as major factors undermining competitiveness, with Thai hom mali rice priced substantially higher than Vietnamese and Cambodian fragrant rice. The association projects an 11% decline in total rice exports to 7.03 million tonnes for 2026, urging a more competitive exchange rate to sustain market share. Thailand is also set to fulfill a government-to-government rice contract with China, delivering 500,000 tonnes by year-end.

Thailand's rice exports plunged sharply in January 2025, with volumes dropping 17.5% year-on-year to 530,000 tons and export value falling 30.7% to 9.7 billion baht (312 million USD). The Thai Rice Exporters Association forecasts total rice exports for 2025 to decline 11% to 7.03 million tons, marking a five-year low, while export value is expected to decrease by 12.3% to between 130-140 billion baht. Key challenges include the strengthening baht, which has pushed Thai fragrant rice prices to around 1,200 USD/ton—the highest globally—and a 15% temporary U.S. import tax that could reduce fragrant rice exports to the U.S. by 15-20%. Additional pressures stem from global oversupply, record production in India, import restrictions from major buyers like Indonesia, and food security policies promoting self-sufficiency. Exporters urge urgent government action to stabilize the currency, develop new rice varieties aligned with global demand, and reduce production costs to maintain Thailand's competitiveness.

On February 25, the domestic rice market in the Mekong Delta experienced slow transactions and reduced supply, with some warehouses halting purchases due to declining raw rice prices and scarcity of high-quality rice. Post-Tet, rice prices showed mixed trends: varieties like CL 555 decreased slightly, while Dai Thom 8 saw price increases, and others remained stable. Internationally, Asian rice prices face downward pressure amid increased supply and sluggish import demand, with Indian 5% broken rice priced around 350–356 USD/ton and Thai rice declining to 383–385 USD/ton. Bangladesh has boosted rice imports from India to stabilize prices ahead of Ramadan. Weather forecasts suggest a 60% chance of La Niña transitioning to neutral by April 2026, potentially stabilizing global rice supply and easing shortage risks.

Following the Lunar New Year, Vietnam's domestic rice market shows mixed price movements, with high-quality varieties like Dai Thom 8 and OM 18 maintaining price advantages due to stable consumption and export demand, while common varieties face competitive pressure. In the Mekong Delta, raw rice prices fluctuate, with some varieties decreasing slightly and others increasing. On the international front, export rice prices in India and Thailand have declined amid peak new harvest supplies, with Indian 5% broken rice priced at $350–356/ton and Thai 5% broken rice dropping to $383–385/ton. Increased supply and cautious import demand are driving these downward adjustments. Additionally, Bangladesh has increased rice imports from India ahead of Ramadan, and Pakistan has modified export tax and subsidy policies to support exporters despite domestic price concerns. Weather forecasts indicate a possible transition from La Niña to neutral conditions, potentially boosting rice production in Asia and sustaining pressure on export prices in the medium term.