Broken Rice Monthly Update (Vietnam) 2026-01

On February 27, Vietnam's domestic rice market remained calm with limited supply and cautious trading, leading to slight price fluctuations and differentiation among varieties in the Mekong Delta. While some rice types like CL 555 saw price declines, others such as Dai Thom 8 experienced minor increases, and retail prices remained generally stable. By-products like rice bran continued to decline in price. In contrast, export rice prices showed an upward trend, with Vietnam's Jasmine rice rising by 2 USD/ton to 433–437 USD/ton, maintaining competitiveness against major exporters like Thailand, India, and Pakistan. The global rice market experienced an 11.1% price increase by mid-February 2026, driven by renewed demand following India's export restriction lift, stockpiling in Africa and the Middle East, and seasonal demand ahead of Ramadan and Tet. These developments suggest a new adjustment phase in the rice market, benefiting exporters but increasing cost pressures on food processors and raising food inflation risks.

Thailand's rice exports plunged sharply in January 2025, with volumes dropping 17.5% year-on-year to 530,000 tons and export value falling 30.7% to 9.7 billion baht (312 million USD). The Thai Rice Exporters Association forecasts total rice exports for 2025 to decline 11% to 7.03 million tons, marking a five-year low, while export value is expected to decrease by 12.3% to between 130-140 billion baht. Key challenges include the strengthening baht, which has pushed Thai fragrant rice prices to around 1,200 USD/ton—the highest globally—and a 15% temporary U.S. import tax that could reduce fragrant rice exports to the U.S. by 15-20%. Additional pressures stem from global oversupply, record production in India, import restrictions from major buyers like Indonesia, and food security policies promoting self-sufficiency. Exporters urge urgent government action to stabilize the currency, develop new rice varieties aligned with global demand, and reduce production costs to maintain Thailand's competitiveness.

On February 25, the domestic rice market in the Mekong Delta experienced slow transactions and reduced supply, with some warehouses halting purchases due to declining raw rice prices and scarcity of high-quality rice. Post-Tet, rice prices showed mixed trends: varieties like CL 555 decreased slightly, while Dai Thom 8 saw price increases, and others remained stable. Internationally, Asian rice prices face downward pressure amid increased supply and sluggish import demand, with Indian 5% broken rice priced around 350–356 USD/ton and Thai rice declining to 383–385 USD/ton. Bangladesh has boosted rice imports from India to stabilize prices ahead of Ramadan. Weather forecasts suggest a 60% chance of La Niña transitioning to neutral by April 2026, potentially stabilizing global rice supply and easing shortage risks.

Following the Lunar New Year, Vietnam's domestic rice market shows mixed price movements, with high-quality varieties like Dai Thom 8 and OM 18 maintaining price advantages due to stable consumption and export demand, while common varieties face competitive pressure. In the Mekong Delta, raw rice prices fluctuate, with some varieties decreasing slightly and others increasing. On the international front, export rice prices in India and Thailand have declined amid peak new harvest supplies, with Indian 5% broken rice priced at $350–356/ton and Thai 5% broken rice dropping to $383–385/ton. Increased supply and cautious import demand are driving these downward adjustments. Additionally, Bangladesh has increased rice imports from India ahead of Ramadan, and Pakistan has modified export tax and subsidy policies to support exporters despite domestic price concerns. Weather forecasts indicate a possible transition from La Niña to neutral conditions, potentially boosting rice production in Asia and sustaining pressure on export prices in the medium term.

Indian rice export prices remained stable last week, close to a one-month high, supported by improving demand from African countries placing small orders after awaiting price adjustments. Indian 5% broken rice is offered at $353–359/ton, unchanged from the previous week. In Vietnam, prices for 5% broken rice slightly declined to $360–365/ton amid slow trading during the Tet holiday, though exports to the Philippines and Africa remain robust with nearly 149,000 tons shipped in early February. Thailand's 5% broken rice prices held steady around $395/ton, with subdued market activity but ongoing small orders from the Philippines and Indonesia. Thai rice supply is expected to decrease due to reduced planting, potentially exerting downward pressure on prices, while Bangladesh faces high domestic rice prices despite ample production and imports.

On February 11, rice prices in the Mekong Delta remained stable with little fluctuation across both domestic and export markets. Fresh rice varieties such as IR 50404, OM 5451, and OM 4218 showed steady prices, while trading activity was slow as buyers and sellers awaited the post-Tet japonica rice harvest. Export rice prices also held within narrow ranges, with IR 504, CL 555, and OM 18 maintaining consistent levels. Retail prices for various fragrant and common rice types remained unchanged, with Nàng Nhen rice commanding the highest price at around 28,000 VND/kg. Internationally, Vietnam's rice export prices stayed stable, with 5% broken fragrant rice selling between 415 and 430 USD/ton and Jasmine rice at 426 to 430 USD/ton.

Coffee prices fell sharply in early February 2026 due to forecasts of a record Brazilian harvest and increased supply from Vietnam, the world's largest Robusta producer. Robusta prices on the London exchange dropped by up to 81 USD/ton, while Arabica prices on the New York exchange declined by nearly 12 cents per pound. Vietnam's domestic coffee prices also slipped below 100,000 VND/kg. Meanwhile, rice prices in the Mekong Delta remained stable with minimal fluctuations, and Vietnam's 5% broken rice export prices held steady at 360–367 USD/ton despite resumed but modest demand from the Philippines. India saw a slight rice price increase driven by rupee appreciation, while Thailand's rice prices remained unchanged amid abundant supply. Additionally, U.S. soybean futures rose on expectations of increased Chinese imports, contrasting with declines in corn and wheat prices due to ample global supply.

In early 2026, the Mekong Delta rice market remained stable with steady prices across common and high-quality rice varieties, reflecting balanced domestic supply and demand. Export prices for Vietnamese rice held firm, with 5% broken fragrant rice selling at around 415–430 USD/ton and Jasmine rice at 426–430 USD/ton, supported by stable demand from traditional markets. January 2026 rice exports exceeded 600,000 tons, generating approximately 370 million USD, marking double-digit growth in volume and turnover compared to January 2025, and an average export price above 616 USD/ton. The Philippines remained the largest importer, accounting for nearly 40% of exports, with its resumed import activities expected to boost demand further. Looking ahead, continued prioritization of high-quality rice and favorable Asian market demand could sustain export prices, with projected rice exports reaching around 4 million tons in the first half of 2026, supporting stable income for farmers and enterprises.

Vietnam aims to increase the proportion of fragrant and high-quality rice to 75% of total rice exports by 2026, focusing on higher-value segments to reduce market risks and enhance brand recognition globally. Despite a slight decrease in rice planting area to 7.09 million hectares, improved yields are expected to raise total production to 43.55 million tons. The Mekong Delta remains the key export hub, with an estimated 7.73 million tons of rice available for export after domestic consumption. In 2025, Vietnam exported over 8 million tons of rice valued at more than 4 billion USD, ranking second worldwide behind India. To mitigate market risks, especially dependence on the Philippines, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development plans to diversify export markets, promote digital monitoring of supply and demand, and amend export regulations. Investments in infrastructure and logistics in the Mekong Delta are anticipated to reduce costs and improve competitiveness, while the industry also advances low-emission rice production to meet sustainable and premium market demands.