Broken Rice Monthly Update (United States) 2026-01

Vietnam’s rice export prices experienced a slight decline in late February 2026 due to a surge in domestic supply from the winter–spring harvest in the Mekong Delta and a slowdown in import demand from key markets. The Philippines, Vietnam’s largest rice importer, is expected to reduce its rice imports to around 150,000 tons per month in March and April 2026, down from an average of 400,000 tons monthly. Despite this short-term dip, economic experts view the Philippines’ import reduction as temporary and do not foresee a long-term impact on its status as a major buyer. In January 2026, Vietnam exported approximately 600,000 tons of rice, marking a 12.4 percent increase in volume and a 16.9 percent rise in value year-on-year, with the average export price reaching US$616.6 per ton.

Rice export prices from major Asian hubs remained largely unchanged in late February 2026 due to subdued demand and abundant supply. Indian 5% broken parboiled and white rice prices held steady at around USD 350-356 and USD 347-352 per metric ton, respectively. Vietnam’s 5% broken rice was offered at USD 360-365 per ton, with trading activity resuming but facing challenges as the Philippines plans to reduce monthly imports from 400,000 to 150,000 tons starting March. Thailand’s 5% broken rice prices stayed around USD 383-385 per ton, with buyers shifting preference to competitively priced Vietnamese rice. Market participants anticipate potentially lower yields this year due to forecasted dry conditions, while overall supply remains stable as the new crop outcome is awaited.

Thailand's rice exports dropped significantly in January 2026, with volumes falling 17.5% year-on-year to 530,000 tonnes and export value declining 30.7% to 9.7 billion THB (approximately 312 million USD). The Thai Rice Exporters Association forecasts total rice exports for 2026 to decrease by 11% to 7.03 million tonnes, with export value expected to fall 12.3% to 130 billion THB. Key challenges include the strengthening baht, which has made Thai rice more expensive compared to competitors, and a temporary 15% US import tariff that could reduce fragrant rice exports to the US by 15–20%. Additional pressures stem from global oversupply, record production in India, import restrictions by countries like Indonesia, and food security policies promoting self-sufficiency. Exporters call for urgent government action to address currency issues, develop new rice varieties, and reduce production costs to maintain Thailand's market share.

Punjab is confronting a critical foodgrain storage shortage as its covered godowns, with a capacity of 182 lakh tonnes, are nearly full, currently holding 144 lakh tonnes of rice and 48 lakh tonnes of wheat. The state expects an additional 75 lakh tonnes of rice from last year’s paddy procurement, exacerbating the storage crunch. Efforts to evacuate old stocks have stalled due to limited grain movement from Punjab and other surplus-producing states, leading to a storage logjam similar to that in 2019. The government has asked millers to store rice at their premises and plans to divert 10% broken rice for ethanol production in future seasons, but these measures offer limited immediate relief.

The Food Corporation of India (FCI) and the World Food Programme (WFP) signed a five-year Memorandum of Understanding on February 18, 2026, for the supply of 200,000 metric tonnes of rice to support global humanitarian efforts against hunger. The agreement, valid until 2031 and extendable by mutual consent, sets the rice price at INR 2,800 per quintal until March 31, 2026, with annual price reviews thereafter. This partnership highlights India’s commitment to combating malnutrition and food insecurity worldwide, reinforcing its role as a major agricultural contributor to global food systems. The collaboration aims to provide nutritious food to vulnerable populations, advancing the UN’s Zero Hunger goal through strengthened cooperation between India and WFP.

Global rice export prices in January 2026 showed a year-on-year decline compared to January 2025, primarily driven by lower prices in everyday white and parboiled rice across major Asian exporters such as India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam due to improved supply and softer demand. India’s 5% broken white rice fell from $425.4/t to $351.4/t, while similar declines were observed in Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. In contrast, premium fragrant and basmati rice varieties, notably from India and Thailand, experienced price increases amid tighter supply and sustained demand in high-value markets, with Indian PUSA basmati rising from $1,000/t to $1,150/t and Thai fragrant rice from $973/t to $1,202.8/t. This divergence highlights a structural split in the global rice market, where staple rice remains volume-driven and price-competitive, whereas premium segments are influenced by quality and destination-specific demand.