Raw Beef Monthly Update (United States) 2025-12

CME cattle futures fell sharply due to deeply negative beef packer margins and concerns over a potential strike at a major slaughter and processing plant in Greeley, Colorado, which could reduce fed cattle demand. On Thursday, the average beef packer margin was negative $256.95 per head, improving slightly from negative $358.15 a week earlier, but still signaling significant pressure on packers. Lower packer bids in U.S. Plains feedlot markets indicated potential declines in cash cattle prices, with April live cattle futures closing at a three-week low. Feeder cattle futures also dropped to their lowest level in over a month, breaking below key moving averages. Meanwhile, lean hog futures saw a modest pullback after a strong rally, with deferred contracts rising on seasonal demand expectations.

Beaver County Stockyards in Oklahoma led Tuesday's feeder cattle sales with 4,100 head sold at significantly higher prices, including record highs for 4-, 5-, and 7-weight steers and heifers. Feeder steers rose $2 to $5, steer calves $7 to $12, and heifers $5 to $10 higher compared to previous sales, with standout prices such as 119 feeder heifers at 1,042 lbs fetching $291 per cwt, surpassing $3,000 per head for the first time. Other regional barns from Tennessee to Missouri and Kansas also posted multiple all-time and top-ten barn records across various weight classes, reflecting broad strength in the feeder cattle market. Feeder cattle futures and cash prices closed higher on Tuesday, with cash prices maintaining a premium over futures. The largest sales by volume included Kimball, SD, and Beaver County, OK, underscoring active market participation and robust demand.

Cross Cattle Company, founded in 1884 in Alberta, Canada, has evolved from Hereford to primarily Angus cattle to improve calving ease and reduce health issues. The ranch operates year-round rotational grazing, leveraging the region’s Chinook winds and artesian water sources to sustain cattle through harsh winters and droughts. Maintaining a focus on cost-effective, high-quality beef production, the Cross family prioritizes cow health and adaptability to varied terrain, with calves typically weaned in October and managed based on weather conditions. The ranch’s history includes pioneering roles in Canadian cattle breeding and contributions to the Calgary Stampede, reflecting a deep-rooted commitment to advancing beef cattle genetics and sustainable ranching practices.

Union representatives at JBS USA's Greeley, Colorado beef-processing plant are registering members this week in preparation for a potential strike following failed contract negotiations with UFCW Local 7. The union, representing approximately 3,800 workers, authorized a strike earlier this month after employees worked without a formal contract since July. Key issues cited by the union include unsustainable working conditions and allegations of bad-faith bargaining. JBS emphasized its commitment to balancing workforce recognition with operational stability, noting that disruptions at this flagship beef facility could impact supply chains across beef, pork, and poultry segments. No official strike date has been set, but ongoing tensions highlight labor stability as a critical factor for supply chain resilience in the agri-food industry.

Brazil achieved a record beef export volume of 258.94 thousand tons in January, marking a 25.3% increase over January 2025's 206.68 thousand tons, according to Cepea. China remained the largest market, accounting for 46.3% of exports with 119.63 thousand tons shipped, surpassing the country's annual quota of 1.106 million tons. The United States was the second largest destination, receiving 29.85 thousand tons, up 57.3% from January 2025. Despite a 24.1% decline in export revenue from December 2025, January's revenue reached USD 1.39 billion, a 40% increase compared to January 2025.

Argentina's soybean production for marketing year 2025/26 is forecasted to remain steady at 48 million metric tons, planted over 16.5 million hectares. Timely rainfall in February has improved soil moisture and stabilized crop conditions following dryness in January. These favorable weather developments are expected to mitigate some of the earlier damage to the crop, supporting the maintained production outlook.

Kansas City emerged as a major meatpacking powerhouse between the Civil War and World War II due to the expansion of railroads, booming Texas cattle drives, and the advent of refrigerated railcars. The city’s strategic location as a transportation hub enabled efficient movement and centralized processing of livestock, connecting northern markets with southern cattle production. Refrigerated boxcars revolutionized meat distribution by allowing fresh meat to be shipped nationwide without spoilage, significantly expanding consumer access. This convergence of infrastructure, livestock production, and refrigeration technology transformed Kansas City into a key player in the industrial agricultural system of the American Midwest.

Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production forecast remains steady at 48 million metric tons, planted on 16.5 million hectares. Timely rainfall in February helped stabilize crops following dryness in January, improving soil moisture and mitigating earlier damage. This outlook supports continued stability in Argentina's oilseed sector for the marketing year.

On Thursday, several U.S. livestock auctions reported record-breaking feeder cattle prices across multiple weight classes. Bluegrass Stockyards in Stanford, KY, set 14 new barn records including all-time highs for 10-weight steers at $313.50 and $313.00. Mitchell Livestock Marketing in South Dakota posted the top three 9-weight prices ever, with a record $360.50 for 57 head at 908 lbs. Other notable performances included Stockmen’s Livestock Exchange in North Dakota, Mid Missouri Stockyards in Missouri, and Woodward Livestock Auction in Oklahoma, all setting new barn records in various weight divisions. Feeder cattle futures closed lower, but the 7-Day RTI Feeder Index and National Steer Price both rose, maintaining premiums over futures. High volume sales were led by Pratt Livestock Auction, Mitchell Livestock, and Stockmens – East, reflecting strong market demand.

A study by Oklahoma State University evaluated the profitability of native beef steers versus beef × dairy crossbred steers in calf-fed and yearling-fed finishing systems. Yearling-fed beef steers generated the highest net returns, nearly $485 per head, due to lower production costs and better performance, outperforming both yearling-fed dairy crossbreds and calf-fed steers. Dairy crossbred yearlings showed superior carcass quality with more upper Choice and Prime grades, but their profitability was lower due to higher costs. The research highlights that yearling systems utilizing grazing resources enhance profitability, and beef × dairy crossbreds can compete economically when purchased at a discount of about $20/cwt relative to native beef steers. These findings provide valuable guidance for producers managing feeder cattle in Oklahoma’s production environment.