Raw Beef Monthly Update (Argentina) 2025-12

The European Commission has provisionally applied the trade agreement with Mercosur countries, including Brazil, despite warnings about the safety and regulatory standards of Brazilian beef exports. A February 24 report by the European Commission revealed that Brazil cannot guarantee its beef is free from the hormone oestradiol 17β, banned in the EU, citing serious structural flaws in Brazil’s control system. European farmers and organizations like Asaja and COAG criticize the lack of reciprocity and increased import quotas, which threaten the profitability and viability of the EU livestock sector. The provisional application has been labeled an institutional betrayal by agricultural groups, who urge the Spanish government to defend domestic producers and consider legal action. The European Parliament’s ratification vote and the Court of Justice of the EU’s pending opinion may influence the agreement’s future, but the agricultural sector plans continued mobilizations to protect food safety and market fairness.

José María Roca, executive of the Logros slaughterhouse, highlighted critical challenges in the Argentine cattle industry, including shrinking herds and high female slaughter rates that threaten future supply. Despite a 10% drop in meat production in January, domestic consumption remains a key market pillar, though per capita consumption fell 15% to 45 kilos due to rising exports. Roca noted that recent U.S. export quotas focus on lean cuts for processed products rather than premium cuts, while China remains a strategic and stable export destination with growing red protein demand. He emphasized the need for industry-wide integration, elimination of export withholding taxes, and policies to increase herd size and productivity. Additionally, Logros has invested in efficient irrigated agriculture linked to feedlot operations and pioneered carbon footprint measurement in meat production to meet environmental standards demanded by international clients.

Meat production in 2026 is projected to decline by 150,000 tons compared to 2025, driven by a sustained reduction in slaughter volumes, which fell to 48,300 heads per day in January 2026, an 8% decrease from January 2025. Despite the lower slaughter numbers, average carcass weights have improved, moderating the production decline to an estimated three million tons. Livestock prices have reached historic highs, with winter calf prices at $6,600 per live kilo in real terms—71% above the 20-year average—and steer prices 51% higher than the 2000-2025 average. These price peaks, however, mirror previous ephemeral surges seen in 2011 and 2022, which were followed by significant declines. Export volumes may increase slightly to 900,000 tons, while domestic consumption is expected to remain around 43-44 kilograms per capita annually.

Japan's Animal Health Council has approved the key risk analysis report necessary for the export of Argentine beef from the foot-and-mouth disease-free zone with vaccination, marking a major milestone after nearly two decades of negotiations. This approval, reached during the 77th meeting of Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, follows extensive technical exchanges and expert visits between Argentine and Japanese authorities. Argentina had already been authorized to export beef from the foot-and-mouth disease-free zone without vaccination since 2018. Japan remains a significant beef importer, with annual imports averaging over USD 3.1 billion for around 500,000 tons of fresh and frozen beef. This development opens the door for Argentine beef to enter one of the world's most valuable markets.

A February 2026 European Commission audit found that Brazil has failed to fully prevent the export of beef treated with the banned hormone oestradiol 17β to the EU, despite corrective measures implemented after 2024 warnings. The audit highlighted significant operational deficiencies in Brazil's traceability system, including certification failures that allowed hormone-treated meat to enter EU shipments under 15 health certificates. Additionally, Brazilian authorities did not inform EU importers about the presence of these ineligible products, violating community regulations and undermining trust. Spanish industry groups like PROVACUNO and ASAJA condemned the situation, emphasizing the risks to food safety and unfair competition, and called on European policymakers to ensure that trade agreements with Mercosur countries guarantee compliance with EU standards.

In 2025, U.S. pork exports recorded the second highest value and third largest volume, totaling 2.94 million tons and $8.4 billion, slightly down 3% from the record levels of 2024. Growth was driven by increased shipments to Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, supported by tariff-free access through free trade agreements. Conversely, beef exports declined 12% in volume and 11% in value to 1.14 million tons and $9.33 billion, largely due to minimal shipments to China amid ongoing trade impasses. Excluding China, beef exports showed modest decreases of 3% in volume and 0.4% in value. U.S. lamb exports also performed strongly, with muscle cuts reaching their highest volume since 2013 and a 29% increase in export value. The industry emphasizes the importance of restoring full market access to China to maximize beef export potential.

The Argentine livestock sector is witnessing a significant price surge, with breeding cows and calves fetching record values at recent auctions. At a Wallace S.A. auction in Azul, Buenos Aires, pregnant cows sold for an average of 2.7 million pesos, nearly triple their historical average of around 700 dollars, while calves reached prices of approximately 1,000 dollars each. This price rally, driven by strong demand and favorable export trade prospects, is encouraging ranchers to reinvest in herd replenishment after years of stagnation. The high prices reflect both improved economic conditions in 2025 and a stable dollar value, marking a turnaround from the severe cattle liquidation period during the late 2000s. The robust demand for calves and breeding stock signals renewed confidence in the sector’s growth potential.

Livestock prices in 2025 have surged to their highest real values in seventy years, with export steers trading at 8,300-8,400 pesos per kilo on the hook and live steers reaching 4,800-5,000 pesos per kilo. Analyst Ignacio Iriarte highlighted that current steer prices in Cañuelas are 51% above the 2000-2025 average in constant currency, while weaned steers are valued 71% higher than the last twenty-year average. Despite these strong prices incentivizing new investments and replenishing feed supplies, the meat processing industry faces financial strain due to rising raw material costs, declining by-product values, and increased unfair competition. The Regional Federation of Meat Processing Industries (FIFRA) noted that slaughterhouses are forced to charge butchers for services with higher VAT rates, exacerbating economic pressures and encouraging informal meat trade.

The Agroganadero Market of Cañuelas (MAG) will hold its next televised livestock auction, named "MAG Exportación," on March 4, targeting export cattle sales. Broadcast on Canal Rural, the auction aims to establish a reference market for various cattle categories destined for the European Union's Hilton Quota, non-Hilton, quota 481, as well as China and the United States. Producers will benefit from new commercial alternatives, with cattle sold "lifted from the field" and payment terms set by consignors. The auction will occur monthly on the first Wednesday, featuring detailed disclosures on cattle finishing methods and breeds to ensure transparency. This initiative follows significant investments and negotiations, marking a modern evolution from the old Liniers Market by providing enhanced services and event hosting capabilities.

Mercosur steer prices have surged to new historical highs, with the WBR Index rising by 9 cents last week to USD 4.73 per carcass kilo, marking a 10.8% increase since the start of the year. Argentina led the gains with export steer prices climbing 23 cents to USD 6.28, supported by peso appreciation, while Uruguay, Brazil, and Paraguay also recorded notable price increases. Additionally, fat cattle prices at the Agroganadero Market averaged $5,200 per kilo, improving the calf-to-corn purchase ratio by over 23% in the past month to 20.7 kilos of corn per kilo of calf, reflecting enhanced feed cost efficiency.